Evidence, methods, and operating insight for decisions that must work in the field.
The houses of Çatalhöyük, the temples of Eridu, and the ration bowls and clay tablets of Uruk: how strangers used standards, seals, and records to cooperate and sustain a city.
Stone houses and a puppy's grave at Einan, the megaliths of Göbekli Tepe, the tower of Jericho, and the grinding stones of Abu Hureyra. Follow the cooperation and knowledge humans gained through settlement and agriculture, and the labor and changes in life that came at a price.
A missing submarine and airliner, a codebreaking war fought on paper, and navigation to the Moon. Through dramatic episodes in history, discover how priors, likelihoods, posteriors, and the weight of evidence change the next judgment.
The Dreyfus affair and the authors of The Federalist, insurance premiums and spam filters, combined models and superforecasters. Follow Bayesian reasoning in everyday life as small pieces of evidence are compared, accumulated, and used to revise judgments.
There is a gap between a busy day and a day spent completing important work. Through ExaRing+’s Rings and execution records, its Bayesian feedback loop, and Jordan’s story, this article examines how judgments about oneself change the next action.
Follow the course of world history to explore the birth of knowledge and the choices people made. An introduction to why EXA Business Science reads business and civilization through history.
Needles and fire, a small house by a lake, and the grave of two children. Follow the long story of how Ice Age people endured the cold, passed on knowledge, and made their way into new lands.
What action should the success you want lead to today? This essay explores the meaning of a Ring: dividing a large goal into units of execution that can be completed, then defining their completion criteria and priority. It follows how one completion builds self-trust and learning, and carries them into the next action.
