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Evidence, methods, and operating insight for decisions that must work in the field.

27Published articles

Personal Success

ExaRing+: Bayesian Thinking, Part 1 — The Mathematics That Reads Silence

A missing submarine and airliner, a codebreaking war fought on paper, and navigation to the Moon. Through dramatic episodes in history, discover how priors, likelihoods, posteriors, and the weight of evidence change the next judgment.

October 19, 202630 min read

Bayesian
Bayesian
Evidence

Personal Success

ExaRing+: Bayesian Thinking, Part 2 — When Small Pieces of Evidence Change Our Judgment

The Dreyfus affair and the authors of The Federalist, insurance premiums and spam filters, combined models and superforecasters. Follow Bayesian reasoning in everyday life as small pieces of evidence are compared, accumulated, and used to revise judgments.

October 19, 202624 min read

Bayesian
Bayesian
Evidence

Personal Success

ExaRing+: Bayesian Thinking, Part 3 — Do You Know Yourself?

There is a gap between a busy day and a day that completes important work. Through ExaRing+’s Rings and execution records, its Bayesian feedback loop, and Jordan’s story, discover how evidence about yourself changes the next action.

October 19, 202626 min read

Bayesian
Bayesian
Evidence

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3 articles tagged “Decision-making”

ExaRing+: Bayesian Thinking, Part 1 — The Mathematics That Reads Silence

ExaRing+: Bayesian Thinking, Part 2 — When Small Pieces of Evidence Change Our Judgment

ExaRing+: Bayesian Thinking, Part 3 — Do You Know Yourself?

All Articles

3 articles tagged “Decision-making”

ExaRing+: Bayesian Thinking, Part 1 — The Mathematics That Reads Silence

ExaRing+: Bayesian Thinking, Part 2 — When Small Pieces of Evidence Change Our Judgment

ExaRing+: Bayesian Thinking, Part 3 — Do You Know Yourself?