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23Published articles

Business Operations

The Silent Factory: Bayesian Diagnosis of a Short Shot

Quantifying the realm of intuition: A case study of dynamic decision-making using Bayesian updates. How does data become a weapon for decision-making in a manufacturing site ruled by uncertainty? This article vividly shows a real-world application of Bayesian statistics through the process of resolving 'Short Shot' defects in an injection molding factory.

May 19, 20268 min read

Bayesian
MCMC
Inference

Theory & Methods

Short-Shot Cause Probabilities: From Bayes’ Theorem to Odds and Bayes Factors

Verify the temperature and pressure hypotheses with Bayes’ theorem and odds. Follow sequential updates to 87.6% in the morning and 63.7% in the afternoon, then connect transaction and activity records to judgment and execution.

September 8, 202611 min read

Bayesian
Bayes Theorem
Bayes Factor

Business Operations

The Silent Factory — How Does Evidence Change Decisions? A Bayesian Lab for the Short-Shot Case

Change the inspection records in a short-shot investigation and see how new evidence changes the judgment about its cause. Move between experiments and investigation notes to distinguish this evidence from the overall judgment, and build a basis for discussing the next inspection and action.

September 11, 20266 min read

Bayesian
Bayesian updating
Bayes factor

All Articles

The Silent Factory · 3 articles

The Silent Factory: Bayesian Diagnosis of a Short Shot

Short-Shot Cause Probabilities: From Bayes’ Theorem to Odds and Bayes Factors

The Silent Factory — How Does Evidence Change Decisions? A Bayesian Lab for the Short-Shot Case

All Articles

The Silent Factory · 3 articles

The Silent Factory: Bayesian Diagnosis of a Short Shot

Short-Shot Cause Probabilities: From Bayes’ Theorem to Odds and Bayes Factors

The Silent Factory — How Does Evidence Change Decisions? A Bayesian Lab for the Short-Shot Case