bayesian
Bayesian EXAWin-Rate Forecaster
Precisely predict sales success by real-time Bayesian updates of subtle signals from every negotiation. With EXAWin, sales evolves from intuition into the ultimate data science.
![BA01.[Bayesian Data Noir] Silent Factory, The Aesthetics of Bayes Sculpting the Truth](/_next/image?url=%2Fstatic%2Fimages%2Fba01_cover.png&w=3840&q=75)
BA01.[Bayesian Data Noir] Silent Factory, The Aesthetics of Bayes Sculpting the Truth
Quantifying the realm of intuition: A case study of dynamic decision-making using Bayesian updates. How does data become a weapon for decision-making in a manufacturing site ruled by uncertainty? This article vividly shows a real-world application of Bayesian statistics through the process of resolving 'Short Shot' defects in an injection molding factory.
![BA04-5. [Series Part 4/Final] Bayesian A/B Testing — Which Sales Strategy is More Effective?](/_next/image?url=%2Fstatic%2Fimages%2FBA045-ab-testing.png&w=3840&q=75)
BA04-5. [Series Part 4/Final] Bayesian A/B Testing — Which Sales Strategy is More Effective?
Email vs. Phone call, Technical demo vs. Business meeting, Discount offer vs. Value proposition — Comparing the effectiveness of sales strategies in real-time using Bayesian probabilities instead of frequentist p-values. Even automating strategy optimization utilizing Thompson Sampling.
![BA04-4. [Series Part 3] Competitive Analysis through Conditional Probability — Knowing the Enemy Reveals the Win Rate](/_next/image?url=%2Fstatic%2Fimages%2FBA044-competitive-analysis.png&w=3840&q=75)
BA04-4. [Series Part 3] Competitive Analysis through Conditional Probability — Knowing the Enemy Reveals the Win Rate
How does the presence of competitors affect our P(Win)? A methodology for mathematically analyzing competitive landscapes and designing strategic response scenarios using conditional probability, Bayesian networks, and the Competition Impact Factor.
![BA04-3. [Series Part 2] Portfolio Probability Management — Reading the Entire Pipeline with Bayes](/_next/image?url=%2Fstatic%2Fimages%2FBA043-portfolio-management.png&w=3840&q=75)
BA04-3. [Series Part 2] Portfolio Probability Management — Reading the Entire Pipeline with Bayes
Beyond the P(Win) of individual deals, we calculate the expected revenue of the entire sales pipeline using Bayes. Conservative/optimistic forecasts, deal priority matrices, and optimal resource allocation — the mathematics and strategy of Bayesian portfolio management.